Vietnam coffee exports may fall 23 percent in August, Marex says

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Coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of the robusta variety used in instant coffee, may have fallen 23 percent last month from the year earlier period, according to Marex Spectron Group.

Bean shipments were estimated at 65,000 metric tons in August, down from 84,000 tons in the same period last year, the London-based brokerage said in a report e-mailed yesterday.

Exports for the 2010-11 crop year through to July were 985,000 tons compared with 906,000 tons for the same period last season, data from the brokerage showed.

“There is simply too much coffee,” according to the market report.

Vietnam had about 1.235 million tons of coffee available for sale in the 2010-11 crop year ending Sept. 30, Marex said. It estimated production for this season at 1.115 million tons.

“Vietnam had probably a greater carry-in than we thought and a higher crop than we thought,” it said in the report.

Ending stocks in Ho Chi Minh City were estimated at 55,000 tons, while farmers will end the season with 70,000 tons of beans, Marex data showed.

Vietnamese coffee exporters accelerated shipments earlier this year after the May robusta contract on the NYSE Liffe exchange switched to being more costly than the July contract, almost doubling certified stocks in Europe.
Robusta Inventories

Robusta coffee inventories with a valid grading certificate in warehouses monitored by the NYSE Liffe exchange climbed to 417,420 tons as of July 11, up from 217,670 on Dec. 27, Liffe data showed. Stockpiles stood at 398,090 tons as of Aug. 22, according to data published on the exchange’s website.

Liffe certified stocks will fall to between 260,000 tons and 290,000 tons by the end of the year, Marex said in the report.

“This will be a meaningful draw but with both the producer and the consumer priced on November, we do not believe that this draw will translate into excitement in the futures, either on the flat price or the structure,” it said.

Robusta coffee for November delivery slid $38, or 1.6 percent, to $2,295 a ton by 11:04 a.m. on NYSE Liffe in London. The price climbed 9.1 percent over the past month.

Vietnam’s production will increase 5 percent to 10 percent in the season starting in October to 21 million to 22 million bags of 60-kilograms, Marex estimated.

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