Analysts call time on ever-smaller US corn hopes

Analaysts at Allendale and Informa Economics called time on the relentless decline in US corn production forecasts, pegging the yield well above a market-moving figure from Lanworth.

Allendale, the Chicago-based broker, pegged the US corn crop at 12.466bn bushels, on a yield of 147.7 bushels per acre.

Informa Economics estimated the yield at 151.0 bushels per acre and production at 12.711bn bushels.

The figures are below estimates from US Department of Agriculture officials of a 12.914bn-bushel harvest, and a yield of 153.0 bushels per acre – forecasts they may changed on Monday with the release of their latest Wasde report on world crop supply and demand.

However, they are well above the figures of 143.3 bushels per acre, and a harvest of only a little over 12bn bushels, from Lanworth analysts, and based on satellite imagery, which sent grain prices soaring on Friday.

‘There is damage’

"I feel pretty good about our numbers," Rich Nelson, Allendale’s director of research, told Agrimoney.com, adding that the forecasts were based farmers own estimates of their crops.

Recent US corn estimates – yield,(production) and date published

USDA: 153.0 bushels per acre, (12.914bn bushels), August 11

Intl FCStone: 146.3 bushels per acre, (12.350bn bushels), September 1

Lanworth: 143.3 bushels per acre, (12.022bn bushels), September 2

Allendale: 147.7 bushels per acre, (12.466bn bushels), September 6

Informa Economics: 151.0 bushels per acre, (12.711bn bushels), September 6

"What we like about this is that it gives us coverage through states, rather than a crop tour," which only visits select destinations.

However, he highlighted that the survey had supported the idea that yields were going to be well below earlier expectations, damaged by a hot July and dry August.

"There is damage. And most people do not expect much moisture in the next few weeks to repair the damage," Mr Nelson said.

The data also follow an estimate of a yield of 146.3 bushels an acre from Intl FCStone, released on Thursday.

‘Demand must be rationed’

Allendale also unveiled a forecast for soybean production of 3.007bn bushels, at a yield of 40.7 bushels, closer to USDA numbers of 3.056bn bushels (83.2m tonnes) and 41.4 bushels per acre.

Recent US soy estimates – yield,(production) and date published

USDA: 41.4 bushels per acre, (3.056bn bushels), August 11

Intl FCStone: 41.05 bushels per acre, (3.030bn bushels), September 1

Lanworth: 40.0 bushels per acre, (2.969bn bushels), September 2

Allendale: 40.7 bushels per acre, (3.007bn bushels), September 6

Informa Economics: 41.5 bushels per acre, (3.061bn bushels), September 6

"Soybean prospects are a little better than corn’s," Mr Nelson said, noting that weather for the crop’s crucial month of August was better than in July, a more important month for corn.

Separately, Oil World, the influential analysis group, said it had become "more likely" that America’s soybean harvest would fall below the USDA forecast, signalling lower exports.

"Demand for US soybeans must indeed be rationed, and most of this will probably be done in exports," the German-based group said.

"US exporters will lose market share in October/December, their peak export season," with trade being picked up by Argentina and Brazil.

The group also highlighted Ukraine’s potential for soybean exports, which are set to beat 1m tonnes for the first time, out of a harvest of 1.9m tonnes, up from 64,000 tonnes in 2000.

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