Canada wheat quality ‘excellent’ in early harvest

Questions over world wheat quality received some more positive answers on Friday when the Canadian Wheat Board reported an "excellent" crop so far, and doubts over the German crop were perceived as overdone.

The Canadian Wheat Board, the world’s biggest grain and barley seller, said that this year’s wheat crop was set to prove better on quality, as well as quantity, that that last year, when wet conditions slashed to 38% the proportion of the harvest rated in the top two grades.

Indeed, the quality of the crop so far had been "excellent", Bruce Burnett, the CWB’s director of market analysis, said, while acknowledging that the harvest was still in its early stages.

"The next three-to-four weeks will be critical," Mr Burnett told a CWB conference, with the potential for an early frost, or poor harvesting weather, major threats to the outcome.

Higher tonnage

The comments came as the CWB supported hopes for a larger Canadian wheat harvest than many analysts had been predicting, although its numbers fell short of those from official statisticians on Wednesday which sent US wheat futures tumbling.

CWB forecasts for Western Canada harvests and (year on year change)

Wheat (excluding durum): 17.4m tonnes, (-3.3%)

Durum: 3.9m tonnes, (+30%)

Barley 8m tonnes, (+14.3%)

The board upgraded by 1m tonnes to 21.3m tonnes its forecast for wheat production in the Prairies, which account for the great majority of Canada’s harvest.

The figure – including durum, the wheat variety used in making pasta – was, nonetheless, 300,000 tonnes short of Statistics Canada estimate two days ago.

German prospects

Meanwhile, in Europe, broker FCStone questioned downbeat forecasts for the German crop, which has been tested by poor weather for much of the crop year, culminating in a rain-plagued harvest.

While German farmers on Thursday forecast a crop of 21m tonnes, "through our contacts in Germany we expect the figure to be higher and more in the region of 23m tonnes", FCStone analyst Jaime Nolan said.

And there was a sign of a break in the clouds which have threatened quality hopes for a crop normally overwhelmingly of milling grade.

"With the forecast now showing only more localised showers through the weekend and out to Tuesday of next week in the north and north east [of Germany], this should offer producers a good opportunity to get much… field work complete," he said.

"What is clear is that a repeat of the quality loss we have seen last year in Germany is not on the cards."

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