Russia grains optimism wanes, as German fears rise

tải xuống (3) The revived optimism over European and Black Sea grains production hit turbulence on Monday with trims to hopes for crops both in Germany and Russia.

SovEcon took a Russian crop of much above 90m tonnes off the agenda, after results showing a decline in yields as the harvest has headed north and east.

While yields are typically higher in south western areas, the fall this time has been marked. The harvest’s average yield dropped below 3 tonnes per hectare as of last Thursday, with roughly one-third of the crop in silos, from 3.3 tonnes per hectare a week before, official data show.

"As the harvesting area is some 4m hectares down from 2009, and average yields are expected to be in the region of two tonnes per hectare, the crop is likely to decline by around 8m tonnes from the 97 million tonnes reaped in 2009," Moscow-based SovEcon said.

The influential analysis group revised its harvest estimate to 87m-90m tonnes, from 87m-92m tonnes, bringing its forecast in line with the government forecast but below the 91m-91m tonnes expected by rival consultancy Ikar.

‘Delayed by rains’

Separately, in Germany, the European Union’s second-largest grains producer, the farm co-operatives association cut its estimate for production of all crops by 900,000 tonnes to 40.3m tonnes, highlighting weaker prospects for wheat and rapeseed harvests.

Hopes for wheat, for which an unusually dry spring has been dogged with a dismally wet harvest period, the output estimate was cut by 800,000 tonnes to 22.0m tonnes.

The figure compares with the 24.05m tonnes of wheat harvested last year. The US Department of Agriculture last week kept its estimate of this year’s output at 22.2m tonnes, while noting that harvest had been "delayed by persistent rains".

On Friday, a report from the UK grain arm of a major European commodities house noted that "it hasn’t stopped raining [in Germany] for several weeks and 80% of the crop in the north is still in the field".

Germany’s farm co-operatives association also cut its estimate for the domestic rapeseed crop by 300,000 tonnes to 4.0m tonnes, below the 4.3m-tonne-forecast from the USDA, which blamed the crop’s declining potential on a "poor start" in the autumn leaving it more susceptible to setbacks from a cold winter and dry spring.

Better week ahead?

The association’s downgrades came even as hopes grew of better German harvest weather, following the rain delays which have sparked concerns in particular about the quality of a wheat crop which is typically nearly all of milling quality.

"A break in rains forecast for Germany early-to-mid week should offer producers opportunity to advance harvest there," Jaime Nolan at FCStone’s Dublin office said.

Strategie Grains, the Paris-based analysis group, still expects 82% of the crop to be of milling quality despite the poor weather. Rains encourage sprouting, and the production of enzymes which beak down starch and gluten content.

This figure is up from 43% last year, when rain also dogged the harvest, if below earlier hopes.

Monday’s crop revisions follow a series of, generally positive, revisions for Black Sea and European grain crops over the last couple of months.

The USDA last week raised its estimate for the Russian wheat harvest by 3.0m tonnes to 56.0m tonnes, and of the EU one by 1.4m tonnes to 133.5m tonnes.

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/russia-grains-optimism-wanes-as-german-fears-rise–3477.html


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