Official corn and soy harvest estimates ‘too high’

Lanworth, the analysis group which draws crop estimates from satellite data, has pegged the US corn harvest 570m bushels below government estimates, warning of weather damage and lower sowings than officials are counting on.

The prominent consultancy, which was also more downbeat that the US Department of Agriculture on prospects for the country’s soybean output, said that yields of both the oilseed and corn would come in close to trend in the important agricultural states of Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska.

However, surrounding areas would see losses of 7-9%.

"The largest losses are expected in the eastern Corn Belt, where historically delayed planting under wet conditions has been followed by hot and dry conditions, and in drought-affected Southern areas," Lanworth said.

"Imagery confirms extremely low vegetation density in eastern Indiana, central and southern Kansas, northwest Ohio, and southern Michigan."

Harvest estimates

Corn sowings were, on a harvested basis, pegged at 83.99m acres for corn, some 900,000 acres below the USDA figure.

The data led to a production forecast of 12.90bn bushels, below an official forecast of 13.47bn bushels.

For soybeans, the estimate for harvested acreage was pegged bang in line with the government expectations, although a production figure of 3.07bn bushels was 158m bushels below the USDA forecast.

The estimates, from a consultancy with a solid forecasting reputation, come at a time when supplies of both crops are already expected to be tight, and were attributed for supporting futures prices on a day when forecasts for rainier weather might have been expected to encourage selling.

"It could be why markets have been reluctant to pullback much even with rain falling in Chicago," a US broker told Agrimoney.com.

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/official-corn-and-soy-harvest-estimates-too-high–3391.html